Pachter: 3DS Will Survive In Diminished Market, Vita To ‘Die Slow, Painful Death’


If you know a lot about the game industry, you may have heard of a pretty well-known game analyst named Michael Pachter. Well today, he has some good predictions regarding the Nintendo 3DS. Here’s what he said when asked if the 3DS could survive in the smartphone/handheld/tablet wars:

“The handhelds are going to always appeal to core gamers. Core gamers can be six or seven years old. Go look at Skylanders. It’s far from a casual game. There are tons of 8 and 9-year-old core gamers – look at the kids that play Minecraft. So, those kids are still going to want a 3DS, I believe that. But I promise you will not be able to find a nine-year-old alive in America who says they would rather have a 3DS than a smartphone. Kids who are hardcore gamers want both, but all kids would rather have a smartphone so they can text all their friends.”

He also had some interesting insight on why Nintendo should bring their old software to iOS and Android:

“They should take their old software – and I don’t mean their new software – [to mobile]. Some of the 500 games on the GBA could be easily ported to iOS and Android. Most of them are just run forward and jump controls schemes. Why not sell those games for $5 to $10 on iPhone and Android? When you think about half a billion Android and iOS phones and tablets out there right now and growing, what are the odds that every game Nintendo released would sell 5 million copies at 5 bucks? Pretty good. Let’s say they did 10 games and only did 50 million units at $5 – that’s $250 million more than they have now. And – oh by the way – it wipes out their financial loss. If they put 100 games on phones, and the average is $7 because some are at $5 and some are at $10 and they sell five million each of 100 games, we’re talking billions of dollars. I think they would make more from mobile than the rest of their operations combined.”

Pachter thinks that it would be very unlikely for Nintendo to put their old software on Nintendo consoles because their vision/goal is to continue providing their signature intellectual properties on the hardware that they build and sell which is understandable. After all, Iwata isn’t in this business to make a quick buck. He wants to continue to provide great titles to fans of his games.


After all the Nintendo news, Pachter went on to speak about the Vita. Here’s what he had to say when asked on the future of Sony and the Vita in the handheld market:

“There is no future and they couldn’t do any better [than Vita]. The market is what it is because of Nintendo. Nintendo built the market and Nintendo has the best name in handhelds. I just think [Sony] misjudged the size of the market and launched it into this s—storm of mobile destroying the casual end of dedicated handhelds. And Nintendo’s not giving up much share on the hardcore side, because they have three games to every one Sony game, and they are good games.”

What do you think about Pachter’s wise words? Do you agree with him? Disagree? Let me know by leaving a comment!


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